House of (Bad) Luck

[Qcnm]

I played the House of Luck 7 times today and got white duck feathers 5 times. Is this just incredibly bad luck or is the choice predetermined regardless of which chest you pick? Has anyone experienced anything similar or observed any patterns in the game?

It's a stark contrast to the amazing luck I had in the Aerial Challenge - with 5 minutes remaining for the event, I decided to play one more game and went straight from 5th to 1st place thanks to a large succession of battery clusters.

[Tatjana Gaberc]

Yes I did just few days ago. I play 6 times and I got TC 5 times in a row, mostly small amounts but also 12TC.

But generally I noticed that I got rewords of similar tipe, like tools or bricks, or products or rewords for current event. I`m not complaining, just take what it is offered. I like this game with all that I like or dislike.

[_DD_]

... Is this just incredibly bad luck or is the choice predetermined regardless of which chest you pick?
Has anyone experienced anything similar or observed any patterns in the game? ...

No idea re. your first "or", and "no" re. the 2nd "or"
I have a similar impression as Tatjana, though:

... But generally I noticed that I got rewords of similar tipe, like tools or bricks, or products ....

If something comes up that I don't like, I leave the HOL and restart it, to break the run of "same stuff".
I believe, though, that software-wise this impression is not very reliable; we just "like" to see patterns.

[Mayfield]

I haven't experienced a run like that. In 5 or 6 chests I will nearly always get at least one coins and one tcash, sometimes two.

My guess is that it does not matter which chest we pick, there is one current reward list for hol, with drop rate (percentage chance of getting) for each item on the list. So, whatever the chest, the building reward is chance drop from that same list. They might have programmed 9 separate lists, one for each chest with its own rewards and percentages, but that seems needlessly complicated. Somewhere in between, they could have made separate list for the center chest, or the four corners, or something like that.

[gggillis]

If something comes up that I don't like, I leave the HOL and restart it, to break the run of "same stuff".
I believe, though, that software-wise this impression is not very reliable; we just "like" to see patterns.

I take the random out of it. I always pick the bottom center chest. And if I get something I don't want I break the chain as DD does and close the HoL and start over.

[Veganville]

Did your plane need feathers, by any chance? I frequently get plane stuff.

[Light of the World~Emily]

I have often found that, as Veganville says, it will give you stuff your plane, trains, or helicopters need products-wise. And like gggillis, I "take the random out of it." I always pick the center chest. It keeps me from beating myself up when I hesitate over two chests, pick one, and the other had something better.
And, as _DD_ said, we often perceive patterns that aren't really there. A study was done where participants rolled a pair of dice 100 times, each time the roll was recorded. As the rolling went on, the participant would note any perceived patterns. Looking at the aggregate data after the experiment, though, most of those patterns weren't impressive.
I play backgammon with my dad sometimes, and I've played rollplay games. My dice luck seems uncanny. One time my dad switched dice with me to make sure mine weren't weighted! But I've realized that I remember the times I got good rolls, and not the times my rolls were lousy.
Haha, one time in a rollplay scenario, a friend and I had to roll to see if we could swing on some ropes Tarzan-style and smash through a factory window to get inside (ten stories up an apartment building). On a 20-sided die, my friend rolled a one. Obviously he failed. I rolled a 20. Of course I remember that! It was so dramatic. But I don't remember a single other roll in that game. All that to say that The House of (Bad) Luck is probably just your faulty perception.

[Qcnm]

Thanks for the replies guys. I didn't need feathers for any planes or trains, but the duck feeder was recently built so that may have influenced it. The odds of specifically picking feathers from 9 boxes 5/7 times is still so statistically unlikely, which is why I thought it was bizarre and questionable - especially as people have pointed out how algorithms affect which tools arrive by train etc.
I agree it's not a pattern as it occurred just that day, I've received various rewards from the chests since.

[_DD_]

... I didn't need feathers for any planes or trains, but the duck feeder was recently built so that may have influenced it. ....

oh - that might indeed have been it. I've often thought the game is looking over my shoulder (hm... not sure how to explain that picture...*G*) and brings me things that I need*, be it in market or anywhere

* and it's not telepathy or mind-reading or something, but cos I had just built something (and no products there yet!), as you say, or planted/harvested/made lots of sthg.

[Light of the World~Emily]

Thanks for the replies guys. I didn't need feathers for any planes or trains, but the duck feeder was recently built so that may have influenced it. The odds of specifically picking feathers from 9 boxes 5/7 times is still so statistically unlikely, which is why I thought it was bizarre and questionable - especially as people have pointed out how algorithms affect which tools arrive by train etc.
I agree it's not a pattern as it occurred just that day, I've received various rewards from the chests since.

And this may or may not be true, and it can't be proven one way or another, but I am convinced that whatever you get from the HOL is predetermined no matter what chest you open. Everything else you see is just there to make you mad you didn't pick that one (or glad you didn't).